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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.